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NOAA Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Season For Seventh Consecutive Year
Forecasters say La Niña and above average ocean temps mean a busy season is likely
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is predicting an above-average hurricane season this year, making it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. Forecasters predict that there is a 65 percent chance of an above-average season, only a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.
For 2022, NOAA expects between 14 to 21 named storms - those with winds above 39 mph. Of those, 6 to 10 may become hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher), and 3 to 6 are expected to become major hurricanes (category 3 or above, with winds 111 mph or higher).
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
According to NOAA, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea combined with ongoing La Niña are contributing to the enhanced risk for an active season. In addition, there is an enhanced west African monsoon this year, which supports stronger African Easterly Waves, known for fostering many of the strongest and longest-lived hurricanes.
“Hurricane Ida spanned nine states, demonstrating that anyone can be in the direct path of a hurricane and in danger from the remnants of a storm system,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov for preparedness tips, and by downloading the FEMA App to make sure you are receiving emergency alerts in real-time.”
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